The percentage of orphans is growing in Southern Africa

Estimated number of orphans by year and country, from 1990 to 2010, in sub-Saharan Africa. (Children on the Brink 2004.) Notice that in eleven countries the percentage of orphans is projected to grow substantially (Projections of the percent of all children who are orphaned for 1990 and 2010):

  • Botswana 7-24%
  • Central African Republic 13-18%
  • Lesotho 12-23%
  • Malawi 11-15%
  • Mozambique 12-17%
  • Namibia 10-18%
  • South Africa 10-19%
  • Swaziland 11-24%
  • Tanzania 9-15%
  • Zambia 10-19%
  • Zimbabwe 7-21%
Because of AIDS, the percentage of orphans is tripling in Botswana and Zimbabwe. It is doubling in Lesotho, Swaziland and Zambia.

Can households cope?

Informal fostering among extended family members is a vital coping mechanism in nations with growing orphan populations, yet the enormity of the AIDS epidemic is challenging the viability of extended family care as the epidemic decreases the number of available caregivers, increases economic vulnerability, and causes households to dissolve.

In many nations, orphans who are informally fostered are living in poorer households with fewer assets and worse dependency ratios than other children.1 On average, the head of orphan households in sub-Saharan Africa are female, have low levels of education, are unemployed, and are older than caregivers in non-orphan homes.2

Although grandparents often provide nurturing care, 80% of older people who live in developing countries do not have a regular income, and are among the poorest in society.3 While older headed households may scrape by, these households are economically vulnerable to shocks caused by illness, weather, or changes in the economy. In many older person homes, children must work in order for families to meet their basic needs. In these conditions, social welfare assistance must be created or expanded to provide assistance to destitute families. Moreover, even in income earning households, families struggle to meet their basic needs, particularly when they do not receive assistance.4

1. Case A, Paxson C, Ableidinger J, Monasch R, Boerma JT: Orphans in Africa: parental death, poverty, and school enrollment. Demography 2004; 41(3): 483-508.

2. UNESCO: Education For All. vol 2005. Paris: UNESCO, 2005.

3. Help Age International. London, 2005.

4. Miller, C., Gruskin, S., Rajaraman, D., Subramanian, S.V. and Heymann, J. “Orphan care in Botswana’s working households: Growing responsibilities in the absence of adequate support.” Accepted by the American Journal of Public Health November 2005.